Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Ascent Toronto
decks
21
(10.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
148
60-69-19
overall winrate
47.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.8%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1292
· median 1286
· range 1126–1549
(21 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
10% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 36 | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 45.0% | 48.4% | -0.6 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 27 | 10-13-4 | 44.4% | 45.2% | 38.4% | -4.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 17 | 5-9-3 | 38.2% | 40.5% | 36.3% | -5.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 34.7% | -6.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 70.2% | +10.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 40.9% | -4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -1.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.5% | -8.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 31.4% | -13.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 41.2% | -5.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.0% | +18.2 |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.6% | -24.6 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 21 from this event
The 21 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Tidal Lock, Primordial Ritual, Tideholder Claymore. Losers more often ran: Torpid Fractal, Freezing Hail, Frostbind.
Tidal Lock
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Primordial Ritual
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Tideholder Claymore
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Vaporjet Shieldbearer
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Snow Fairy
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Storm of Thorns
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Torpid Fractal
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Freezing Hail
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Diffusive Block
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Waverider Protector
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torpid Fractal | -0.67 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Eventide | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Slipstream Vault | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Sweet Ambrosia | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Waverider Protector | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Quill | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intricate Longbow | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Powered Defender | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |